Whilst England will be buoyant, it is not difficult to argue that this is even more of a false dawn that 2005. Let’s think about the state of each team after the respective series wins.
England’s 2005 side was as equally “young” as today’s team. Of that squad none were evidently approaching the twilight of their careers, perhaps with the exception of Giles. So why did that team not go on to greater things? A number of reasons seem apparent:
- Long-term/recurring injuries to Vaughan, Simon Jones, Harmison and Flintoff,
- Retirement of perhaps the key player of the England team in that golden period, namely Trescothick,
- Drops in form for the likes of Geraint Jones, Strauss and Hoggard,
- Lack of evident progress from the new guard in that series namely Bell and Collingwood.
All these factors served to check England’s development into the best side in the world. In fact the only player from that 2005 winning side that showed any sort of upward curve in their careers has been Pietersen.
So will the 2009 side have a similar fate, especially given the widely held belief that they are not as acomplished as the 2005 side? My head says yes.
Basically winning at the Oval will mean that England will continue to have excess flab in their side, which, for my money, accounts for almost half the team. The flab is of course Bell, Harmison, Anderson, Collingwood and some would argue Cook. It is my firmly held belief that England have no future as the number one team in the world with these players.
Anderson’s supposed career renaissance was proved a false one at Headingley and the Oval. We all know the damage he can cause when the conditions are in his favour, but unfortunately about 70% of England’s test cricket does not take place in England in the late spring /early summer. He’s a rubbish tourist and England simply won’t win in South Africa or Australia the following winter with Anderson leading the attack, let alone with Harmison backing him up.
Bell and Collingwood’s places look increasingly in jeopardy with Trott’s performance thank God. But I fear Bell will survive and Collingwood will tour, creating unnecessarily pressure on Trott who won’t be given time to settle in.
The main positive for England is Flintoff’s retirement, which will remove a severe obstacle to dressing room unity and end a disruptive influence for England’s selectors.
Finally, great that winning the Ashes is, I feel a little unfulfilled by England’s victory. This is probably because I’m a stats man. I don’t think anyone in the England team has put in a convincing performance, apart from Strauss. Broad has stagnated apart from one spell of brilliance, which masks his real value to the side. Anderson has proved he is a one shop pony. With Trott it is far too early to judge.
All-in-all there is nothing from this Ashes summer that suggests that England will challenge South Africa this winter. In fact no one born in England scored a century in the entire series.
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